Just want to pass on a couple of notes and offer some analysis of today’s races. One, Pat Valenzuela is scheduled to return to California racing in race six at Del Mar today. However, with Tyler Baze injured and out for at least three weeks, don’t be surprised if P. Val picks up some extra mounts.
Two, Santa Anita began rehabbing it’s synthetic course on Sunday, focusing on drainage in the stretch area, especially near the finish line. It’s now unlikely they will change the synthetic material. They will just try to make it all work better. We hope they’re successful.
The fields for today’s races are a bit shorter than opening week. Since the track has presumably been power harrowed during the last day or two, we should all pay close attention to the times and successful running styles during the early races today.
Now, let’s start handicapping today’s races. Race one may give us an early clue, with an expected heavy favorite (Cathy’s Crunches, even money) breaking from the outside post in a small field of five after the late scratch of the two horse. She may engage the one horse (Alaska Miss, 3-1) early or she may press or stalk. Use this race to go to school.
Race two is on grass, so it’s not going to help us identify biases on the main track. There are six entrants remaining after the late scratch of the seven horse. The pacesetter may be the 5, The Unusual One (10-1), returning from a long layoff. There’s not much value here, so I plan to watch this one also.
Race three kicks off the Pick 6 with another six horse field, headed by the expected heavy favorite, Capital Account (4-5). He earned a huge rating in his debut and was flattered when the second-place finisher came back to win next time out. He’s probably a free bingo square for your Pick 6, but that’s about it.
Race four has seven horses entered to go a mile. The favorite is Luv Dragon (5-2), who is double-jumped off the claim by Miller, a positive sign. He earned the best rating for his last race, but he did it while pressing the pace, which may not be the right style for this track. The one horse, Ministers Power (7-2), may try to wire the field from the rail. I’ll probably sit this out also.
Race five is the start of the Pick 4, which I would like to play. Based on the early results, I’ll make my choices from among these contenders – Mytigerisnosissy (5-2), Rathman (6-1), Minister Machine (20-1), Swongs (12-1), and Mister Jazz (7-2). I left out the 2, Pride of Wilshire (3-1), because she’s gone downhill after being claimed and is dropped off a short freshening, not to mention being a speed horse drawn inside other speed horses.
Race six is very interesting, with three strong contenders. The 2, Word Association (2-1), had a troubled trip as the favorite last time and the winner of that race has already come back to win again. The 4, Ascot’s Highflyer (4-1), overcame a slow start to win her debut while earning a strong rating, and was flattered when the third-place finisher won next time out. Movie Duty (5-2), the 9, has the outside post and should be able to stalk the other speed types. The ratings she earned in her last two races would probably be good enough to win this today. I will use all three on my Pick 4 and look for an overlay for a win bet.
Race seven is now a seven horse field on grass, but it’s a competitive one. There is a little speed (the 2, Aggie Engineer at 8-1 and the 7, Red Door Drive at 6-1) and there are a couple sharp stalker/closers (the 6, Gallant Son at 2-1 and the 8, Riviera Cocktail at 3-1). The 9, Ferneley (7-2) would be a contender if he were sharp, but he returns from a layoff and needed this race last year.
Race eight is extremely wide-open until we’ve seen how the track plays. My contenders include the 1 – Tahoe Yodeler (5-1), 4 – Swiss Hero (6-1), 5 – Call Me Later (6-1), 6 – Bold Fresh (8-1), 10 – Warrens Heartthrob (12-1), 12 – Swiss Tart (7-2), and 13 – Offlee Wild Boys (6-1).
Those are my thoughts at the start of the day. Go make some money!
